Some analysts say that Bitcoin’s current price action aligns with the Bitcoin halving model, leading them to expect a $24000 bottom before year-end.
The topic of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle and its effects on BTC’s long-term price is one that has been highly debated within the crypto community.
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Crypto analysts predicted that the price of Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2021. However, it did not get to this level, and now analysts wonder what will happen in the next six to twelve months.
At the moment, the price of BTC is below $40,000. Many technical analysis metrics suggest that it is more likely that the price will go down further than it will recover to the $40,000 to $45,000 range. Let’s look at what analysts think about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
Bitcoin started the day in red with a 0.78% decline | Source: BTC/USD chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin Could Tumble To $24,000 By The Year-End
Crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user “Wolves of Crypto” discussed the four-year cycle theory on Twitter. This theory suggests that the “most probable bear market bottom for Bitcoin will take place in November/December 2022.”
As per the projection, Bitcoin marked its highest of the last cycle by reaching $68,789 on November 10, 2021. So now, the BTC market is in the corrective phase, usually seen after the cycle top.
The analyst said;
The 200–week SMA has been the long-tested bear market bottom indicator for Bitcoin, and hence, the bottom will likely be placed at ~$24,000.
If this model is correct, we will see bitcoin break out past its all-time high sometime between August and September of 2023.
The independent market analyst Willy Woo suggested that the bottom in Bitcoin could come before the end of 2022. He mentioned, “Orange coin seems a bit undervalued here.”
Highly liquid supply shock oscillator. Source: Twitter
The “Highly Liquid Supply Shock” metric measures how much demand and supply have changed from the long-term average.
The chart above shows that when the oscillator went down to the same level as it is now, the price of Bitcoin went up shortly afterward.
Not a bad time for investors to wait for the law of mean reversion to play out.
BTC At Mid-term Low
The crypto market analyst Philip Swift has suggested that Bitcoin could be in an optimal accumulation range. The AASI or active address sentiment indicator indicates this point for the buy zone.
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“The AASI is back in the green zone. This suggests that the Bitcoin price change is at a sensible level relative to active address change,” said Swift. “This tool has a good hit rate across bull and bear markets for signaling a mid-term low.”
The AASI reading is currently similar to the readings it had in the past. For example, the price of Bitcoin was low around the same time, and it increased in price a few weeks or months later.
Generally, Bitcoin is following a four-year cycle, but the increase is happening at a slower rate than expected.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview