On June 13, cryptocurrency prices plunged deeper into bear market territory after Bitcoin (BTC) sliced through its current trading range and briefly touched $22,600, its lowest level se since December 2020.
According to BTC historical data, the market has now reached valuation metrics that show the price is severely oversold and perhaps near a bottom. Bitcoin has now fallen below its realized price, which represents the average price of every coin in supply based on the time it was last spent on-chain.
Bitcoin realized price vs. actual price. Source: Glassnode
While the pain that this most recent capitulation has wrought across the ecosystem can’t be understated, the one glimmer of hope it offers weary crypto traders is that the worst of the decline could have occurred. The coming days will confirm this theory and proof would be institutions and retail traders stepping in to buy the dip.
“Shrimps and whales” accumulate
On-chain data shows that not all traders feel devastated about Bitcoin at yearly lows. Shrimp wallets, wallets that hold less than 1 BTC, and whale wallets with more than 10,000 BTC have been in accumulation mode since the old Terra (LUNA), now known as Luna Classic (LUNC), collapsed in early May.
Bitcoin accumulation trend score by cohort. Source: Glassnode
According to data from blockchain intelligence provider Glassnode, shrimp wallets “have seen a net balance growth of +20,863 since the May 9th Luna crash,” and a total increase of 96,300 BTC since November’s all-time high (ATH).
Whale wallets have likewise been busy during this period of time as “this cohort has a monthly position change peak of ~140k BTC/month” and has added a total of +306,358 BTC since its all-time high in November.
Support is limited in the mid-$20,000 range
Part of the reason for the rapid sell-off on June 13 was the lack of demand in the $20,000 to $27,000 range as shown on the following entity-adjusted unspent realized price distribution chart.
Entity-adjusted unspent realized price distribution. Source: Glassnode
While there is a heavy amount of demand near the $30,000 and $40,000 price ranges, some of the lowest volumes were found between $20,000 and $27,000, which left little support as the price of BTC crashed in the early hours on June 13.
Relief may be in sight, however, as the saying goes “it’s always darkest before the dawn” and this could apply to the current state of the crypto market based on several metrics.
According to the RVT ratio, which compares the realized capitalization against the daily volume settled on-chain, “the network valuation is now 80 times larger than the daily value settled,” which indicates a low amount of on-chain activity.
Bitcoin entity-adjusted RVT ratio. Source: Glassnode
“In past bear cycles, an underutilized network has provided confluence with bear market bottoms.”
The RVT ratio is currently at its highest level since 2010, which may suggest that the market has reached the point of max pain and could see improvements soon, but the possibility of further weakness can not be ruled out.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $980 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.3%.
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