Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded overnight into Aug. 5 as a fresh trendline reclaim opened the door to further gains.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Daily BTC pricechart sets up “tentative” long signal
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD bouncing off a local bottom at $22,400 to add around 4.6%.
The pair had reversed direction right at key bid support on major exchange Binance, this helping avoid a more substantial loss of the 200-week moving average (MA) at around $22,800.
While that key zone remained uncertain for bulls, a reclaim of the 21-period MA on the daily chart gave on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators cause for optimism.
BTC/USD might not spark a long signal at the daily candle close, it told Twitter followers overnight.
Helps if I post the chart with it. It was worth the wait. #BTC reclaimed the 21-DMA and the Trend Precognition A2+ aglo started flashing a new signal. It’s tentative until the D close. pic.twitter.com/gpTSxrikeT
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) August 5, 2022
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital nonetheless voiced ongoing caution over Bitcoin’s poor record at turning the 200-week MA into solid support this bear market.
“Historically, BTC has been able to generate tremendous buy-side interest at the 200-week MA,” he argued.
“But if $BTC fails to retest the MA in the short-term, that would probably serve as further evidence that this recovery is merely one of relief.”
BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200-week MA. Source: TradingView
Similarly conservative in its price outlook was trading firm QCP Capital, which in its latest market update sent to Telegram channel subscribers that the overall picture was “very mixed.”
Pointing to complex macro triggers, QCP said that the United States Federal Reserve’s monetary policy would be a decisive market-moving factor going forward. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it noted, had not achieved consensus over the pace and scope of future key interest rate hikes.
“Economic data globally is pointing to poor growth and a coming global recession,” the update read, highlighting upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for July due for release on Aug. 10.
“We continue to think that markets will trade sideways and will be sensitive to economic data releases. US CPI next Wednesday will be the next important one to watch.”
Ethereum strength fails to convince
On altcoins, Ether (ETH) and other large-cap tokens joined in Bitcoin’s relief push higher.
Related: 3 key Ether derivatives metrics suggest $1,600 ETH support lacks strength
ETH/USD circled $1,665 at the time of writing, with ETH/BTC nonetheless failing to crack resistance closer to the 0.075 mark after a second retest.
ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView
With the Ethereum merge around one month away, concerns were also increasing over the likelihood of a contentious hard fork of the network.
“The more pressing and immediate risk in the crypto markets is the ETH merge that is scheduled to take place in September,” QCP continued.
It added that markets had already “started to price in the possibility of a material hard fork.”