Your favorite trader is saying Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed. At the same time, the top on-chain indicators and analysts are citing the current price range as a “generational buy” opportunity. Meanwhile, various crypto and finance media recently reported that Bitcoin miners sending a mass of coins to exchanges are a sign that $17,600 was the capitulation move that pins the market bottom.
There’s so much assurity from various anon and doxed analysts on Crypto Twitter, yet Bitcoin price is still in a clear downtrend, and the metrics don’t fully reflect that traders are buying every dip.
A critical component of BTC price that many investors often overlook is the condition and sentiment of Bitcoin miners, which is exactly why Cointelegraph had a chat with Rich Ferolo of Blockware Solutions and Will Szamosszegi of Sazmining Inc. to gain clarity on what’s happening in the mining industry and how this might impact market sentiment going forward.
CT: Does BTC price dropping below its all-time high for the first time ever have any significant future ramifications on the fundamentals of the asset and industry?
WS: The fundamentals of BTC are unchanged, which is why I still expect BTC to evolve into a global reserve asset. The industry, on the other hand, will learn from this crash: Do not be overleveraged and do not offer yields that leave you vulnerable.
RF: Great question, I think from where we’re at now, it was expected based on where people (retail) had bought in the previous cycle. Smart money expected a long bear market to happen, but what has shocked everyone is when and how fast it happened. The mysterious long-awaited blow-off top never happened.
Crypto has a lot more exposure and a lot more bad press due to recent implosions and we’ll see more because the news loves bad press and it’s easier to generate. For those who believe in BTC, they’ll ignore it and it’s the opportune time to buy and invest in the space, especially once all the bad energy is cleared out.
Lots of people have probably sold the bottom and won’t be back, but this is just the basic market dynamics.
CT: The network’s next reward halving is approaching in 676 days. In your view, how will this alter the landscape of industrialized mining and the amount of equipment required to solve an algorithm which becomes more difficult to compute with each halving?
RF: Halving events tend to induce miner capitulation. I’m surprised that the current hash rate hasn’t fallen further. We’re not seeing the sharp decrease that was expected before like 20% to 25%. This happens because older-generation machines have to unplug and the rewards don’t match the cost but the expected hash rate increase that comes with each halving means older-gen machines benefit in the short term. Miners unplug when OPEX is unfavorable and then plug back in when the time is right.
WS: Miners will want to reduce their costs, as half the reward in Bitcoin may render many mining operations unprofitable (assuming a constant Bitcoin price in United States dollars). Mining equipment will continue to improve in efficiency and miners will continue to seek out the most cost-effective energy sources. Halving is one of the many genius features of the Bitcoin network because it washes out inefficiencies.
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