The inaugural edition of ARK ’s “The Bitcoin Monthly” report contains some gems. It also contains a simple compilation of facts that paint a clear picture of the bitcoin market as it currently stands. A blockchain is an unalterable fountain of evidence, and ARK put their best analysts to review it in-depth and get stats and insights for us. Get some coffee and take a seat, let’s forget about the Fear & Greed index and see what the numbers are really saying.
Excited to introduce the first official issue of “The Bitcoin Monthly”
Starting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin’s market action and sharing where we think the market’s headed.
Here are the major highlights from this month’s report:
— Yassine Elmandjra (@yassineARK) June 3, 2022
Over at Twitter, ARK Analyst Yassine Elmandjra described “The Bitcoin Monthly” as: “Starting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin’s market action and sharing where we think the market’s headed.” On ARK’s website, they describe the new venture as: “Considering the market’s fast pace of change, ARK publishes The Bitcoin Monthly, an “earnings report” that details relevant on-chain activity and showcases the openness, transparency, and accessibility of blockchain data.”
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Let’s check the data and insights available in May’s edition.
The State Of The Bitcoin Market, With ARK
According to “The Bitcoin Monthly”:
- “Bitcoin closed the month of May down 17.2%, declining from $38,480 to $31,835.”
Let’s be honest, this looks like the beginning of a bear market. And the Terra/ Luna crash appears to be the catalytic event. However, subsequent data will show that we might not be in one after all.
- “Bitcoin closed the month down 17.2%, printing its ninth consecutive negative weekly decline for the first time in history, suggesting a possible oversold condition.”
Nine consecutive red candles, a new record. That’s a horrific fact no matter how you dress it. However, according to ARK, it suggests “a possible oversold condition.” Which is promising.
- “Bitcoin is down 57% since reaching an alltime high in November 2021. For perspective, the average peak-to-trough drawdown during previous bear markets stands at 76%.”
Does this mean things could get worst? Or does it mean we’re not near bear market levels? It definitely feels bear-markety, but the stats are the stats.
BTC price chart for 06/04/2022 on Exmo | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Network Stands Strong
- “Despite the continued sell-off, bitcoin has not broken below any major trendline. It is trading above its onchain cost basis at ~$24,000 and its 200- week moving average at ~$22,000.”
The bitcoin network absorbed Terra/Luna’s massive sell-off and the market’s subsequent one like a champ. The worst seems to be behind us and bitcoin “has not broken below any major trendline.”
- “An all-time of nearly 66% of bitcoin’s supply has not moved in over a year, a testament to the market’s longer-term focus and a holder base with stronger conviction.”
Despite the massive market movement, bitcoiners keep HODLing like it’s the only chance at economic freedom that they’ll see in their lifetimes. Because it is.
- “Short-term holder positions fell -35% below their breakeven price, on average.”
If bitcoiners are HODLing, who’s selling all those cheap sats? Short-term holders, that’s who. And they’re not even close to breaking even. It’s a short-term holders massacre out there.
ARK Sees A Way For The Market To Jumpstart Itself
Look, hear ARK out. First of all, “bitcoin’s open interest in the futures market has reached an all-time high of approximately 450,000 BTC.” Also, “perpetual contract basis typically hints at market direction. Currently, it is trading at a bullish discount to spot.” This is very important because, “given the high open interest outstanding, we believe the perpetual futures discount indicates a potential upward trajectory in BTC’s next major price movement.”
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That’s right, ARK closes “The Bitcoin Monthly” report predicting “a potential upward trajectory.”
Featured Image by Ricardo Gomez Angel on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView